Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? (March 22)

Market favors 'NO' on Trump saying 'Migrant Crime' this week.

The market shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 94%, indicating low expectations for Trump to use the phrase. However, the Pulse AI suggests a higher likelihood of 12% for 'YES', implying that the market may be undervaluing this outcome. With 120 hours until expiry, there is still time for sentiment to shift.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 94%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a higher likelihood for 'YES' at 12%.
• 3 The edge of 6 suggests the 'YES' side may be undervalued.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 120 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not