The market predicts Trump is unlikely to say 'Most Favored Nation' during his Ohio visit.
Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Trump will not use the phrase 'Most Favored Nation' during his Ohio visit, with a NO probability of 98.05%. The AI model suggests a slightly higher likelihood of 6.45% for a YES, but overall confidence in the NO outcome remains high at 93.55%. The market appears to be fairly priced based on the edge of 4.5.
Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Ohio on March 11, 2026 (https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/06/president-donald-trump-will-be-in-cincinnati-wednesday/89023375007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=true&gca-epti=z117665p001850l001050c001850e1108xxv117665d--48--b--48--&gca-ft=228&gca-ds=sophi).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the events in Ohio scheduled for March 11, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
This market is explicitly about Trump's Ohio visit scheduled for March 11, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's re