Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15)

Market shows a 61% chance Trump will say 'Regime change' this week.

The prediction market indicates a 61% probability that Trump will use the phrase 'Regime change' within the week, while the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 54%. With a close margin and a negative edge for the NO side, the market appears to be leaning towards YES but may be overvaluing that outcome.

• 1 Market probability favors YES at 61%, indicating strong sentiment.
• 2 AI model suggests a more conservative estimate at 54%.
• 3 The NO side is undervalued by 7 points, indicating potential market inefficiency.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 70 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not q