Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 15)

Market predicts Trump will say 'Transgender' this week with high certainty.

The market shows a strong consensus that Trump will use the term 'Transgender' this week, with a 100% probability for YES. However, the AI model suggests a slightly lower confidence at 94.5%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side. With a confidence rating of 60/100 and 110 hours until expiry, there is room for market fluctuations.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The AI probability suggests a slight risk of overconfidence in the YES prediction.
• 3 Historical context may influence Trump's language choices this week.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 110 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not q