Will Trump sue Powell by March 31?

The market strongly favors a 'NO' on Trump suing Powell by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.45% chance that Trump will not sue Powell by the deadline. The Pulse AI probability suggests a significantly lower likelihood of 5.05% for a lawsuit, indicating a consensus that legal action is unlikely. With a confidence level of 65/100 and a time to expiry of 57 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.45%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a lower likelihood of 5.05% for a lawsuit.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, with only 57 hours remaining.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, his administration (including any executive branch department, agency, or office), or the United States federal government files a lawsuit against Jerome Powell, in his personal or official capacity, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The lawsuit must be filed in a U.S. federal or state court and must name Jerome Powell as a defendant.

An announcement of a lawsuit will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant U.S. federal court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.