Will Trump visit China by March 31?

The market strongly favors that Trump will not visit China by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Trump will not visit China, with a 99.95% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also suggests a low probability for a YES outcome at 1.55%, indicating a consensus against the visit. The edge of 1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on available information.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Key factors influencing the market include diplomatic relations and Trump's schedule.
• 3 Historical trends show low likelihood of such visits in similar contexts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, which may affect future probabilities.

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.