Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?

Market favors Trump's approval rating to be below 40.4% on April 3, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a higher probability for Trump's approval rating to fall below 40.4% on the specified date, with a market probability of 58.5% for 'NO'. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty in the forecast.

• 1 Current market probability shows a lean towards lower approval ratings.
• 2 The confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 3 Market is fairly priced with no edge detected.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 88 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 Historical trends may influence future approval ratings.

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.

Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.