Will Turkiye join the Board of Peace?

The market strongly predicts Turkiye will join the Board of Peace.

With a market probability of 100% for a YES outcome, there is a strong consensus that Turkiye will join the Board of Peace. The Pulse AI probability supports this with a 97.5% likelihood, indicating high confidence in this prediction. The edge of -2.5 suggests the market is fairly priced, reflecting a stable sentiment.

• 1 Market probability indicates unanimous expectation of Turkiye's membership.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge suggests no significant mispricing in the market.
• 4 High confidence level reflects strong belief in the outcome.
• 5 Lack of time pressure may stabilize current predictions.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board