Will Tyler Paul Smith win the GA-14 special election?

Tyler Paul Smith is highly unlikely to win the GA-14 special election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Tyler Paul Smith winning the GA-14 special election, with a probability of only 0.05% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.05% for his victory, indicating a significant gap between market sentiment and AI analysis, but both suggest a strong NO outcome.

• 1 Market probability indicates a dominant NO sentiment.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for Smith but still favors NO.
• 3 The edge score of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for Georgia's 14th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election should take place no later than February 15, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://sos.ga.gov/.