Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ukraine has a low chance of winning the Eurovision 2026 televote.

The prediction market indicates a 2.65% probability for Ukraine winning the televote, significantly lower than the AI's estimate of 7.15%. This suggests a consensus that Ukraine is unlikely to secure a victory, though the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about Ukraine's chances.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slightly more optimistic view than the market.
• 3 Current sentiment is heavily against Ukraine winning the televote.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in public opinion and events.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.