Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Low odds suggest Umaro Sissoco Embaló is unlikely to win the 2025 presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Umaro Sissoco Embaló will not win the upcoming election, with a market probability of only 5.50% in favor of a win. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 8.5%, suggesting a consensus on his low chances. The edge of 3 indicates that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in these predictions.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Embaló.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with AI predictions.
• 3 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty.
• 4 An edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).