Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia is favored to gain the most seats in the upcoming election.

The market indicates a strong probability of 79% for United Russia to secure the most seats, aligning closely with the Pulse AI's estimate of 75%. With a confidence level of 80/100 and a slight edge of -4, the market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting stability in expectations as the election approaches.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors United Russia.
• 2 Historical trends show United Russia's dominance in past elections.
• 3 Liquidity appears stable, supporting current market pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 The edge of -4 indicates the market is well-aligned with AI predictions.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.