Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia is highly favored to win the most seats in the upcoming election.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood of United Russia winning the most seats, with a market probability of 95.50%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 91.5%, suggesting a consensus on their dominance. The edge of -4 indicates that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a stable confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows high confidence in United Russia's seat win.
• 2 Current sentiment strongly favors United Russia.
• 3 Historical performance suggests United Russia typically dominates elections.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with low volatility.
• 5 Time until election is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalit