Will Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Vesna is highly unlikely to win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Vesna winning the most seats, with a 99.95% NO probability. The AI model also reflects this sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 4.55%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market indicates very low confidence in Vesna's chances.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly more optimistic view but still leans NO.
• 3 Current market prices reflect a well-informed consensus.
• 4 The time to expiry is relatively short at 371 hours.
• 5 Political landscape changes could influence future probabilities.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Slovenian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (dvk-rs.si/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with