Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

The market suggests a 62% chance that Orbán will remain in power until 2027.

With a market probability of 62% for a NO outcome, there is a prevailing sentiment that Viktor Orbán will not be the next leader out before 2027. The market appears fairly priced, indicating balanced views among participants. The confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current market probability favors Orbán staying in power.
• 2 Market sentiment indicates stability in Orbán's leadership.
• 3 No significant edge suggests fair pricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty among traders.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential political developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.