Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Vladimir Cerrón has a low chance of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Cerrón's victory, with a 99.65% probability of a NO outcome. Despite a slightly higher AI probability of 4.85% for a YES, the overall sentiment indicates skepticism about his chances in the upcoming election.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.65%.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for Cerrón at 4.85%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 808 hours, allowing for potential developments.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).