Will Vladimir Peña win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Vladimir Peña is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Vladimir Peña winning the election, with a 99.95% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of his victory at 4.55%, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market consensus strongly favors a NO outcome for Peña.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance than the market indicates.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 110 hours, adding urgency.

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).