Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?

Low probability of Zelenskyy leaving leadership before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will remain in power until at least 2027, with a 98.45% probability of 'NO' regarding his departure. The AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 6.05% for 'YES', but overall confidence in the market's pricing is moderate at 65/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Zelenskyy staying in power.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI model's predictions.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents often maintain their positions during stable periods.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears adequate, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 With 6948 hours until expiry, there is ample time for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.