Will Waldo Albarracín win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

Waldo Albarracín has a low chance of winning the 2026 La Paz mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a 4.10% probability of Waldo Albarracín winning the election, while the AI model suggests an 8.6% chance. With a high NO probability of 95.9%, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting a general skepticism about his candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 113 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trading activity.

The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).