Will Won Chang-muk win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

The market strongly favors Won Chang-muk losing the 2026 gubernatorial election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.75% chance of Won Chang-muk not winning the election, suggesting significant skepticism about his candidacy. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a low likelihood of victory at 4.75%, indicating a consensus against his chances. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5, suggesting stability in current sentiment.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Won Chang-muk's chances.
• 2 The high NO probability indicates strong skepticism from participants.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES but still low overall.
• 4 Current confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 1993 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

The Gangwon Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Gangwon Province.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).