Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?

Xavier Bertrand has a low chance of winning the 2027 French presidential election.

The market indicates a strong belief that Xavier Bertrand will not win the 2027 French presidential election, with a probability of only 0.30% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 3.3% probability to his chances, suggesting that current perceptions heavily favor a NO outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Bertrand.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 There is a notable confidence level of 65/100 in the current predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3, indicating stability.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).