Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

Xavier Iturralde's chances of winning the 2026 La Paz mayoral election are very low.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Xavier Iturralde winning the upcoming mayoral election, with a 99.65% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of victory at 4.85%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Market indicates a strong NO sentiment for Iturralde's candidacy.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher but still low chance of YES.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 5 Time until election is limited, with only 107 hours remaining.

The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).