Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Yair Golan has a low probability of becoming the next Prime Minister of Israel.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Yair Golan becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 98.95% probability of 'NO.' Despite a slightly higher AI probability of 5.55% for 'YES,' the overall market sentiment remains firmly against his candidacy.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming skepticism about Golan's chances.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly more favorable view than the market.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced with low volatility.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential political developments to influence outcomes.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.