Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Low probability for Yoaz Hendel as next Prime Minister of Israel.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Yoaz Hendel becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 99.65% probability of NO. The AI probability also reflects a low likelihood at 95.15%, suggesting that market participants largely view his chances as minimal.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Hendel's candidacy.
• 2 Market probabilities indicate a strong belief in alternative candidates.
• 3 The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 The edge of 4.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on available data.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.