Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

Yoo Dong-soo has a very low chance of winning the 2026 Incheon mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a 0.15% probability of Yoo Dong-soo winning, suggesting strong skepticism about his candidacy. In contrast, the Pulse AI gives him a slightly higher chance at 4.65%, but both probabilities reflect a consensus that he is unlikely to succeed. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Yoo Dong-soo's low probability reflects limited public support.
• 3 The market's edge indicates it is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Political dynamics could change, but currently, the outlook is bleak for Yoo.

The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).