Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yulia Navalnaya has a low chance of winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.

The prediction market gives a 9.5% probability for Yulia Navalnaya winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 12.5%. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a time to expiry of over 5000 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced, indicating limited sentiment for her candidacy.

• 1 Current market probability for YES is 9.5%, indicating low confidence.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability at 12.5%.
• 3 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 A confidence level of 75/100 reflects moderate certainty in the current odds.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 5152 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.