Events › Politics › Will the democratic party win the 2026 califo…
Politics 2 platforms 8 markets

Will the democratic party win the 2026 california gubernatorial election?

Combined AI YES
31.5%
Avg Confidence
54/100
Combined Volume
$99K
Platform Comparison
Manifold
Will the democratic party win the 2026 california gubernator…
90.31%
81.31%
AI YES
-9
Edge pts
50
Confidence
—
Volume
Polymarket
Will Vladimir Peña win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial el…
0.05%
4.55%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$36K
Volume
Polymarket
Will Miguel Cadima win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial ele…
0.05%
4.55%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$20K
Volume
Polymarket
Will Mauricio Quezada win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial …
0.05%
4.55%
AI YES
+4.5
Edge pts
60
Confidence
$19K
Volume
Manifold
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election…
60.00%
55.50%
AI YES
-4.5
Edge pts
45
Confidence
$17K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Manifold
Will the democratic party win the 2026 california guber…
 90.31% 81.31% -9
50
—
Polymarket
Will Vladimir Peña win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatori…
near 		0.05% 4.55% +4.5
60
$36K
Polymarket
Will Miguel Cadima win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatoria…
near 		0.05% 4.55% +4.5
60
$20K
Polymarket
Will Mauricio Quezada win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernato…
near 		0.05% 4.55% +4.5
60
$19K
Manifold
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Ele…
near 		60.00% 55.50% -4.5
45
$17K
Odds by Platform
Manifold
YES 90.31% NO 9.69%
Polymarket
YES 0.05% NO 99.95%
Polymarket
YES 0.05% NO 99.95%
Polymarket
YES 0.05% NO 99.95%
Manifold
YES 60.00% NO 40.00%
Spread: 90.3 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market consensus strongly favors a NO outcome for Peña.
  • 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance than the market indicates.
  • 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 110 hours, adding urgency.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Politics
Platforms 2 platforms
Markets 8 markets
Markets on this Event
Manifold 90.31%
Will the democratic party win the 2026 california gubernator…
Polymarket 0.05%
Will Vladimir Peña win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial el…
Polymarket 0.05%
Will Miguel Cadima win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial ele…
Polymarket 0.05%
Will Mauricio Quezada win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial …
Manifold 60.00%
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election…
+3 more markets
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