Events › Geopolitics › Will the United States send warships through …
Geopolitics 1 platform 11 markets

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Combined AI YES
12.1%
Avg Confidence
65/100
Combined Volume
$685K
Platform Comparison
Polymarket
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of H…
26.50%
39.50%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$60K
Volume
Polymarket
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr…
5.20%
9.65%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$182K
Volume
Polymarket
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hor…
8.50%
7.20%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$100K
Volume
Polymarket
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Ap…
5.05%
6.25%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$77K
Volume
Polymarket
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by …
6.60%
8.90%
AI YES
+3.5
Edge pts
65
Confidence
$73K
Volume
Platform Comparison
Platform Market YES AI YES Edge Confidence Volume
Polymarket
Will the United States send warships through the Strait…
 26.50% 39.50% +3.5
65
$60K
Polymarket
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz b…
near 		5.20% 9.65% +3.5
65
$182K
Polymarket
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait o…
near 		8.50% 7.20% +3.5
65
$100K
Polymarket
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz …
near 		5.05% 6.25% +3.5
65
$77K
Polymarket
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormu…
near 		6.60% 8.90% +3.5
65
$73K
Odds by Platform
Polymarket
YES 26.50% NO 73.50%
Polymarket
YES 5.20% NO 94.80%
Polymarket
YES 8.50% NO 91.50%
Polymarket
YES 5.05% NO 94.95%
Polymarket
YES 6.60% NO 93.40%
Spread: 22.5 pts — platforms disagree significantly.
⚡ AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Market probability shows a clear preference for 'NO'.
  • 2 AI probability indicates a slight edge towards 'YES'.
  • 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 65/100.
  • 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 749 hours.
  • 5 Market appears fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Event Info
Category Geopolitics
Platforms 1 platform
Markets 11 markets
Markets on this Event
Polymarket 26.50%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of H…
Polymarket 5.20%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr…
Polymarket 8.50%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hor…
Polymarket 5.05%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Ap…
Polymarket 6.60%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by …
+6 more markets
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