Will we get AGI before 2028? — PredictionPulse Event

Platform Comparison

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2028?…

13.34%

16.91%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$153K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2030?…

35.00%

34.48%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$115K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2029?…

25.00%

28.61%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$93K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2032?…

44.53%

48.00%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$60K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2048?…

85.03%

82.02%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$41K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2031?…

40.00%

43.00%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$34K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2035?…

53.27%

52.03%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$28K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2028?…

19.13%

22.13%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$26K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2034?…

50.72%

48.55%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$21K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2040?…

71.31%

68.69%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$13K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2036?…

58.13%

55.71%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$12K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2038?…

64.44%

60.34%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$10K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2037?…

61.14%

58.14%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$10K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?…

14.99%

25.00%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$10K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2039?…

68.12%

63.10%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$9K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2027?…

8.23%

11.23%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$8K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2041?…

72.39%

70.65%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$8K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2045?…

80.14%

77.76%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$7K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2042?…

73.92%

72.52%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$5K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2043?…

75.74%

74.01%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$5K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get AGI before 2044?…

77.85%

74.85%

AI YES

-3

Edge pts

Confidence

$4K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will we get ASI before 2035?…

31.00%

35.00%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$4K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will I get a girlfriend before 2027?…

14.10%

17.10%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

$3K

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will WW3 begin before 2040?…

36.00%

39.74%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

will i get a pet before 2028??…

70.41%

65.41%

AI YES

-5

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

will i get a pet before 2028??…

69.29%

64.29%

AI YES

-5

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

will i get a pet before 2028??…

69.23%

64.23%

AI YES

-5

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Manifold

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?…

27.86%

32.86%

AI YES

Edge pts

Confidence

—

Volume

Detail Trade →

Platform Comparison

Platform	Market YES	AI YES	Edge	Confidence	Volume
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2028?…	13.34%	16.91%	+3	50	$153K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2030?… near	35.00%	34.48%	+3	50	$115K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2029?… near	25.00%	28.61%	+3	50	$93K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2032?… near	44.53%	48.00%	+3	50	$60K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2048?… near	85.03%	82.02%	-3	50	$41K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2031?… near	40.00%	43.00%	+3	50	$34K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2035?… near	53.27%	52.03%	-3	50	$28K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2028?…	19.13%	22.13%	+3	50	$26K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2034?… near	50.72%	48.55%	-3	50	$21K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2040?… near	71.31%	68.69%	-3	50	$13K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2036?… near	58.13%	55.71%	-3	50	$12K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2038?… near	64.44%	60.34%	-3	50	$10K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2037?… near	61.14%	58.14%	-3	50	$10K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?… near	14.99%	25.00%	+3	50	$10K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2039?… near	68.12%	63.10%	-3	50	$9K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2027?… near	8.23%	11.23%	+3	60	$8K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2041?… near	72.39%	70.65%	-3	50	$8K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2045?… near	80.14%	77.76%	-3	50	$7K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2042?… near	73.92%	72.52%	-3	50	$5K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2043?… near	75.74%	74.01%	-3	50	$5K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get AGI before 2044?… near	77.85%	74.85%	-3	50	$4K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will we get ASI before 2035?… near	31.00%	35.00%	+3	50	$4K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will I get a girlfriend before 2027?… near	14.10%	17.10%	+3	60	$3K	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will WW3 begin before 2040?… near	36.00%	39.74%	+5	45	—	Detail Trade →
Manifold will i get a pet before 2028??… near	70.41%	65.41%	-5	45	—	Detail Trade →
Manifold will i get a pet before 2028??… near	69.29%	64.29%	-5	45	—	Detail Trade →
Manifold will i get a pet before 2028??… near	69.23%	64.23%	-5	45	—	Detail Trade →
Manifold Will MBG get defunded before 2027?… near	27.86%	32.86%	+5	55	—	Detail Trade →

Odds by Platform

Manifold

YES 13.34% NO 86.66%

Manifold

YES 35.00% NO 65.00%

Manifold

YES 25.00% NO 75.00%

Manifold

YES 44.53% NO 55.47%

Manifold

YES 85.03% NO 14.97%

Spread: 76.8 pts — platforms disagree significantly.

⚡ AI Market Analysis

1 Current sentiment is predominantly negative regarding AGI before 2027.
2 Market probability suggests a strong belief that AGI is unlikely soon.
3 The edge of 3 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current data.
4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments in AI.
5 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty among participants.