|
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
68% |
69.5% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
GTA 6 released before GPT 6?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76.54% |
71.54% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especiall…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
63% |
55.44% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
74% |
58.97% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
72.79% |
67.96% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
67.92% |
80.71% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
66% |
61% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will there be a GPT 5.5?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
71.1% |
67.45% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
61.98% |
73.64% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
76.05% |
68.54% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Apple to release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
75.67% |
69.1% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
77.6% |
72.6% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
95.78% |
90.78% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
58.16% |
55.8% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Gemini 4 released in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
77.94% |
73.21% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Remote IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
28% |
56% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
98.3% |
92.1% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
86.75% |
88.65% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Generate Biomedicines (ticker: GENB) will IPO before 5pm EST on March 31, 2026
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
99% |
94% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will OpenAI retire the Sora app in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
99.06% |
92.62% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
GPT-6 released in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
74.36% |
69.36% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at e…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
97.16% |
92.12% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
63.93% |
58.56% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
65% |
62.49% |
-5 pts
|
55
|
YES
|