|
Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
21.86% |
26.86% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.5% |
17.17% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
27.23% |
38% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
40% |
42.42% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17.21% |
28.85% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
29.01% |
34.01% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
21.31% |
33.25% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 20…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
11.64% |
15.58% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
8.13% |
13.09% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
10.7% |
12% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
39% |
44% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13.54% |
19.42% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China have a female leader before 2060?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
19.87% |
24.87% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13% |
18% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the Ukraine-Russia war cause a nuclear disaster before 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17% |
22% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17.67% |
22.67% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
32.52% |
36.96% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
37.1% |
42.1% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths bef…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.73% |
11.73% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.17% |
21.17% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.6% |
12.86% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia join the EU before 2040?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.98% |
11.98% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Israel have stricter laws against homosexuality than Saudi Arabia by 2040?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
5.12% |
10.12% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 20…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.88% |
11.88% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|