|
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
42.03% |
46.53% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.26% |
14.71% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla increase deliveries in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
36.38% |
40.88% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will an LLM get at least 80% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.72% |
23.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
8.1% |
22.35% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will an LLM get at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
2.18% |
30.38% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
57.62% |
54.12% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.58% |
19.08% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling compara…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
29.9% |
34.54% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
39% |
43.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
9.05% |
25.94% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.83% |
10.33% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
45% |
49.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a pro…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25.27% |
32.66% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
40% |
44.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
2.79% |
7.22% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cit…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25% |
29.04% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27.45% |
31.95% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
52.26% |
54.47% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27% |
34.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
22.74% |
27.24% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
18.13% |
23.33% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by t…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
39.57% |
44.07% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27.77% |
32.27% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|