Markets / Top Edge

Top Edge Markets

Markets where our AI model diverges most from current crowd pricing. A positive edge means YES may be undervalued. A negative edge means NO may be undervalued.

Market Price

Current crowd consensus

AI Pulse Score

Our model's adjusted probability

Edge Score

Gap between the two — higher = more divergence

Positive edge = YES may be undervalued

Negative edge = NO may be undervalued

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.

349 markets with edge score > 3 pts

Market	Market	AI	⚡ Edge	Conf	Verdict
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030? Manifold AI & Tech	69.21%	71.74%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027? Manifold AI & Tech	67.24%	57.38%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI… Manifold AI & Tech	86.09%	70%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035? Manifold AI & Tech	66.1%	61.1%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031? Manifold AI & Tech	92.47%	87.47%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030? Manifold AI & Tech	93%	88%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US cit… Manifold AI & Tech	79.84%	75.39%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by … Manifold AI & Tech	90.52%	85.52%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does? Manifold AI & Tech	76%	75.19%	-5 pts	50	YES
will tesla stock exceed $500 a share by 2030? Manifold AI & Tech	61.6%	57.81%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028? Manifold AI & Tech	76.33%	70.16%	-5 pts	50	YES
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? Polymarket AI & Tech	6.1%	6.8%	+4.5 pts	65	NO
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30? Polymarket AI & Tech	4.05%	7.3%	+4.5 pts	65	NO
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30? Polymarket AI & Tech	2.95%	7.15%	+4.5 pts	65	NO
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027? Manifold AI & Tech	31.26%	39.5%	+4.5 pts	60	NO
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027? Manifold AI & Tech	15.71%	20.3%	+4.5 pts	60	NO
Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026? Manifold AI & Tech	46.12%	52.42%	+4.5 pts	60	~
Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026? Manifold AI & Tech	37%	41.5%	+4.5 pts	60	NO
Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV … Manifold AI & Tech	10.36%	17.46%	+4.5 pts	60	NO
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026… Manifold AI & Tech	21.75%	40.72%	+4.5 pts	60	NO
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027? Manifold AI & Tech	15.73%	20.23%	+4.5 pts	60	NO
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027? Manifold AI & Tech	42.84%	47.34%	+4.5 pts	60	~
Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027? Manifold AI & Tech	45.3%	49.8%	+4.5 pts	60	~
Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2026? Manifold AI & Tech	25%	22.25%	+4.5 pts	60	NO

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