|
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.48% |
5.72% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will the Tesla RovoVan be available before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
8.04% |
15.25% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will the "Dead by April" AI agent earn a net profit by April 3, 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
96.26% |
20.97% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
48% |
53.73% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
~
|
|
Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.46% |
15.01% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.59% |
18.8% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
15.73% |
20.23% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
21.75% |
40.72% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
10.36% |
17.46% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
37% |
41.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
46.12% |
52.42% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
~
|
|
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
31.26% |
39.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
41.83% |
46.33% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
~
|
|
Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27.52% |
37.45% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 20…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
36.81% |
52.2% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
~
|
|
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.57% |
16.03% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce G…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
15.97% |
28.84% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Waymo IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
15.5% |
26.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
7.72% |
12.22% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
7.05% |
11.48% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
13.12% |
18.71% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journ…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
39.34% |
43.84% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 5B views before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
9.88% |
13% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will the Tesla "Redwood" be available for purchase and delivery by June 30, 2026…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.64% |
6.14% |
+4.5 pts
|
60
|
NO
|