|
Will an LLM get at least 80% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.72% |
23.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.31% |
27.87% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
5.05% |
9.6% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Google reach $330 in March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
3.9% |
20% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Google reach $320 in March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
14.5% |
51.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Google dip to $290 in March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
26% |
52% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Google dip to $240 in March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
1.35% |
10.65% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Google reach $340 in March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
2.45% |
17.7% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
13.99% |
18.25% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Anthropic’s next Sonnet model exceed 65% on terminal bench?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.26% |
14.71% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
42.03% |
46.53% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Amazon reach $224 in March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
13.5% |
34.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
4.42% |
16.98% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14% |
18.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens i…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
22.51% |
27.01% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
ByteDance IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
17.5% |
20.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Revolut IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
20.5% |
18.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week…
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
30.5% |
35% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
20.51% |
25.43% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
16.68% |
21.18% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order i…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
22.77% |
27.56% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.58% |
19.08% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.24% |
14.54% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
0.7% |
10.7% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|