Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

15.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.5M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?

8.7%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $4.7M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

31.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $2.1M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?

12.3%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.3M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?

24.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.1M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Will Mexico join NATO by the end of 2026?

5.9%

Avg YES

Manifold $4K

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?

8%

Avg YES

Polymarket $2.1M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

13.2%

Avg YES

Manifold $21K

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

22.2%

Avg YES

Polymarket $9.7M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Will India strike Pakistan by Dec 31?

0.2%

Avg YES

Polymarket $653K

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

75%

Avg YES

Polymarket $69.8M

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

5.2%

Avg YES

Polymarket $5.2M

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

9.8%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $2.1M

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?

10%

Avg YES

Polymarket $3.5M

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

37.1%

Avg YES

Polymarket $876K

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will Russia join the Board of Peace?

11.1%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $409K

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?

8.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $66K

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

20.7%

Avg YES

Manifold $94K

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

63.9%

Avg YES

Polymarket $19.1M

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs Alter Ego - Map 1 Winner

50%

Avg YES

Polymarket $2K

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will "Natural emergent misalignment from reward hac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

12.1%

Avg YES

Manifold $1K

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-13?

75%

Avg YES

Polymarket $2.3M

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Spread: UC Irvine Anteaters (-3.5)

0%

Avg YES

Polymarket $167K

🌍 Geopolitics 4 markets

Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?

0%

Avg YES

Polymarket $15K