|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
13.99% |
18.25% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
9.29% |
13.79% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.24% |
14.54% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Apple name an outside CEO to replace Tim Cook in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1% |
5.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order i…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
22.77% |
27.56% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
20.51% |
25.43% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week…
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
30.5% |
35% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens i…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
22.51% |
27.01% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
4.42% |
16.98% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14% |
18.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
AI snitch arrest by EOY2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
33.8% |
37.87% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
ByteDance IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
17.5% |
20.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Revolut IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
20.5% |
18.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
16.68% |
21.18% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
46.74% |
51.24% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
42.08% |
46.58% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
0.7% |
10.7% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of March?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
5.05% |
9.6% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.31% |
27.87% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI create a game-playing AI that uses Sora?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.25% |
20.46% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
10% |
16.16% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.25% |
5.75% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accep…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
33% |
37.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI be able to beat me in Pokemon?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
23.69% |
27.54% |
+4.5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|