Markets where our AI model diverges most from current crowd pricing. A positive edge means YES may be undervalued. A negative edge means NO may be undervalued.
| Market | Market | AI | ⚡ Edge | Conf | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Will anything other than AI wipe out humanity by 2100?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
3.56% | 8.06% | +4.5 pts | 50 | NO |
|
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
8.73% | 11.49% | +4.5 pts | 50 | NO |
|
Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
42.51% | 46.5% | +4.5 pts | 50 | ~ |
|
Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
33.11% | 37.61% | +4.5 pts | 50 | NO |
|
Will OpenAI Reach $100B in total profit by the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
17.7% | 22.2% | +4.5 pts | 50 | NO |
|
Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.1% | 18.18% | +4.5 pts | 50 | NO |
|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
0.77% | 5.27% | +4.5 pts | 50 | NO |
|
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
45% | 49.5% | +4.5 pts | 50 | ~ |
|
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
62% | 58.5% | -3.5 pts | 65 | YES |
|
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
99.65% | 76.5% | -3.5 pts | 65 | YES |
|
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
93.5% | 88.5% | -3.5 pts | 65 | YES |
|
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
58.5% | 73% | -3.5 pts | 65 | YES |
|
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
85% | 81.5% | -3.5 pts | 65 | YES |
|
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
90.5% | 89% | -3.5 pts | 65 | YES |
|
Discord IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
62.35% | 78.2% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Ledger IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
44% | 68% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
35% | 63% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Cerebras IPO before 2027?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
91.7% | 81.5% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
75.5% | 72% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
In exactly two years (Mar 2026), will two shares of Alphabet/Google GOOG be wort…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
98.9% | 95.4% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two ye…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
1.98% | 5.48% | +3.5 pts | 60 | NO |
|
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
97.25% | 71.9% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
87.5% | 84% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |
|
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
Polymarket
AI & Tech
|
97.35% | 77.85% | -3.5 pts | 60 | YES |