|
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
95.97% |
86.71% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
100% |
41.5% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
84.5% |
75.5% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
81% |
72% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
100% |
60.5% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0% |
47% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
~
|
|
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on March 30?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
99.95% |
74.6% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
YES
|
|
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
11.5% |
50% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
~
|
|
Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5)
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
100% |
42% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
NO
|
|
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
100% |
50.5% |
-9 pts
|
60
|
~
|
|
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0% |
57.5% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Israel exist at the end of 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
96.46% |
86% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Hugh Jackman appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
48.88% |
47.02% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17.47% |
48.13% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
36.87% |
44.62% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
100% |
52% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2025?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
85.01% |
77.63% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0% |
60% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will GTA 6 win GOTY (Game Awards)?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
50% |
42.9% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Peggy Flanagan and Graham Platner both elected senators in November 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
60% |
53.6% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
61.48% |
52.3% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
50% |
47.38% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
~
|
|
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
79% |
61.5% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
YES
|
|
Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
67.74% |
55.11% |
-9 pts
|
55
|
YES
|