|
Will Tesla declare bankruptcy by the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
4.53% |
9.03% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
24% |
18.31% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
2.07% |
6.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest pric…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.91% |
10.41% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
44.29% |
48.75% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times ficti…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
35.92% |
40.42% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
20% |
24.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
27.18% |
29.13% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will humans wipe out AI by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
6.52% |
10.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
30.53% |
35.03% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
41.7% |
46.2% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
17.24% |
21.74% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
6% |
10.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.86% |
22.09% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
8.17% |
12.67% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
16.28% |
20.78% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy or be Acquired before the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.16% |
15.66% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
24.95% |
29.45% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.47% |
12.78% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.21% |
18.71% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
19.62% |
24.12% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
7% |
11.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
21.39% |
25.89% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.2% |
15.7% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|