|
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
47.59% |
52.09% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.26% |
18.46% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
20.38% |
24.88% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
29.2% |
33.7% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
10.33% |
20.91% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
7.07% |
9.4% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will OpenAI shares pay a dividend before AGI or by 2031?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
12.53% |
17.2% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
34.06% |
38.56% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
23.77% |
28.27% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
26.31% |
27.96% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
31.42% |
35.92% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
22% |
26.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, …
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
30% |
34.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
37.49% |
45.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
~
|
|
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
30.76% |
35.26% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
11.56% |
16.07% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25% |
25.5% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
4.19% |
8.69% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
25.33% |
29.83% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
5.63% |
10.13% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of thei…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
37.33% |
41.83% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
38.1% |
42.6% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035…
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
29.8% |
34.3% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2027?
Manifold
AI & Tech
|
14.21% |
18.71% |
+4.5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|