|
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.32% |
35.46% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
46.45% |
31.86% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20.64% |
20.25% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine become more authoritarian in 2025?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
34% |
43% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cit…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
14.36% |
19.36% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
24.21% |
19.98% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a ceasefire announced between US/Israel and Iran between 11th and …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1.09% |
12.38% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palest…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
10% |
15% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
7.37% |
12.37% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
New Iranian Supreme Leader is chosen in March 2026 and killed in March 2026.
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
4.69% |
37% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will North Korea enter the 2026 US-Iran war as a belligerent?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.14% |
21% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Hamas “disarm and relinquish power” in Gaza?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.13% |
21.13% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.7% |
11.99% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Russian crewed aircraft shot down in NATO airspace by 2026-03-19?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1.02% |
7.29% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Russia joins the Board of Peace by March 31?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1% |
16.47% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
China escalates to U.S.-specific ban on tungsten products by Mar 31, 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13.2% |
25.86% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
26.05% |
42.42% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of the war on Ukraine?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
21.45% |
26.45% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China claim to have discovered life on Mars before 2035?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20% |
24% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
14% |
16% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in u…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17.48% |
22.48% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
39% |
44% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.93% |
14.93% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
8.39% |
23.98% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|