Event Intelligence

🌍 Geopolitics 10 markets

Will Bernie Sanders say "One Percent" or "One Percenter" 3+ times at the rally on Saturday?

40%

Avg YES

Polymarket $48K

🌍 Geopolitics 9 markets

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

15.7%

Avg YES

Polymarket $176.9M

🌍 Geopolitics 9 markets

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?

26.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket $27.1M

🌍 Geopolitics 9 markets

Will "One Battle After Another" win at least 6 awards at the 2026 oscars?

20.2%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $214K

🌍 Geopolitics 8 markets

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?

7.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $12.6M

🌍 Geopolitics 8 markets

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

4.7%

Avg YES

Polymarket $11.3M

🌍 Geopolitics 8 markets

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?

49%

Avg YES

Polymarket $1.4M

🌍 Geopolitics 8 markets

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?

16.8%

Avg YES

Polymarket $2.2M

🌍 Geopolitics 8 markets

US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?

6.8%

Avg YES

Polymarket $2.5M

🌍 Geopolitics 8 markets

Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027?

20.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $45K

🌍 Geopolitics 8 markets

Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?

84.5%

Avg YES

Polymarket $139K

🌍 Geopolitics 7 markets

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

48.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $1.3M

🌍 Geopolitics 7 markets

Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?

15.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $44K

🌍 Geopolitics 7 markets

Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?

28.6%

Avg YES

Polymarket $521K

🌍 Geopolitics 7 markets

Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?

0%

Avg YES

Polymarket $102K

🌍 Geopolitics 6 markets

Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?

34.6%

Avg YES

Manifold $32K

🌍 Geopolitics 6 markets

Iran leadership change by March 13?

18.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket $10.8M

🌍 Geopolitics 6 markets

Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2025?

72%

Avg YES

Manifold $21K

🌍 Geopolitics 6 markets

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?

26.3%

Avg YES

Manifold $604K

🌍 Geopolitics 6 markets

Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?

16.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket $782K

🌍 Geopolitics 6 markets

Will the avg BMI 99.9% Sc2O3 (EXW China) price for March 2026 exceed 1200 USD/kg?

32.5%

Avg YES

Manifold

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

16.4%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $110.7M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16.3%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $1.8M

🌍 Geopolitics 5 markets

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

33.2%

Avg YES

Polymarket, Manifold $4.5M