|
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
36% |
41% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
4.14% |
9.14% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.4% |
14.4% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.89% |
11.89% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
33.1% |
38% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by m…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
35.71% |
40.71% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by Febr…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
18.58% |
23.58% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.27% |
26.23% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
27.68% |
32.68% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
8.39% |
23.98% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
24.94% |
31.37% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the UK government pass legislation introducing conscription for military se…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.44% |
12.86% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
9.14% |
14.14% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons before 2032?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
26% |
31% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Italy remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
41.37% |
37% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
3.92% |
8.92% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20.94% |
25.64% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
7.85% |
12.85% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
8.6% |
13.6% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
23% |
28% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
28.74% |
33.74% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20.71% |
25.71% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
17.82% |
22.82% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|
|
Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
21.85% |
23.35% |
+5 pts
|
50
|
NO
|