| Platform | Market YES | AI YES | Edge | Confidence | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?…
|
0.15% | 1.00% | +0.9 |
|
$29.5M | |
|
Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?…
near
|
0.00% | 3.00% | +3 |
|
$66.3M | |
|
Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?…
near
|
0.00% | 3.00% | +3 |
|
$66.3M | |
|
Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?…
near
|
0.75% | 4.05% | +3 |
|
$41.7M | |
|
Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?…
near
|
29.50% | 30.50% | +2 |
|
$12.4M | |
|
Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?…
near
|
33.50% | 30.00% | -1.5 |
|
$7.1M | |
|
Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?…
near
|
9.50% | 19.00% | -1.5 |
|
$4M | |
|
Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?…
near
|
0.00% | 3.00% | +3 |
|
$3.5M | |
|
Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?…
near
|
49.50% | 57.00% | -1.5 |
|
$2.4M | |
|
Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?…
near
|
54.00% | 48.50% | -6 |
|
$1.4M | |
|
Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?…
near
|
2.75% | 11.00% | +3 |
|
$1.2M | |
|
Polymarket
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?…
near
|
1.60% | 3.10% | +1.5 |
|
$221K | |
|
Manifold
USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?…
near
|
0.83% | 28.38% | +5 |
|
$129K | |
|
Polymarket
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?…
near
|
8.50% | 12.00% | +3.5 |
|
$58K | |
|
Manifold
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?…
near
|
25.52% | 38.92% | +5 |
|
$10K | |
|
Manifold
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2027?…
near
|
57.40% | 46.40% | -11 |
|
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