|
If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
25.01% |
30.01% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
26.05% |
42.42% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0.1% |
5.75% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
China escalates to U.S.-specific ban on tungsten products by Mar 31, 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13.2% |
25.86% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0% |
33.5% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will an Israeli participate in IOI 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.83% |
22.48% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
100% |
34.5% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0% |
18% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
us nukes Iran in 2026
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
4.86% |
9.75% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Russia joins the Board of Peace by March 31?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1% |
16.47% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0% |
30.5% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Israel participate in IOI 2026 (on site)
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
5.4% |
11.85% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Russian crewed aircraft shot down in NATO airspace by 2026-03-19?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
1.02% |
7.29% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
6.7% |
11.99% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Hamas “disarm and relinquish power” in Gaza?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
16.13% |
21.13% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will White House post 200+ posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
Polymarket
Geopolitics
|
0.15% |
15.5% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
23.48% |
27.82% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
24.21% |
19.98% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
30% |
30% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
13.69% |
18.69% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
will a nuclear bomb be thrown in 2026?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
12.9% |
16.9% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cit…
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
14.36% |
19.36% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in …
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
20.64% |
20.25% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|
|
Will Ukraine become more authoritarian in 2025?
Manifold
Geopolitics
|
34% |
43% |
+5 pts
|
55
|
NO
|