AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

54.42%

Market YES

46%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $40K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.98% -1.5 pts

50/100

Market shows a slight edge for Polymarket IPOing before 2028.

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

5.5%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $100K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 13% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market favors NO for OpenAI having the best AI model by June 2026.

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

0.25%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $122K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 2.4% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market strongly favors NO for Moonshot having the best AI model by June 2026.

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?

54%

Market YES

46%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.5% -1.5 pts

50/100

Market suggests a moderate chance of terrorism to hinder AI development by 2029.

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

48%

Market YES

52%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $646K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.15% -1.5 pts

50/100

The market shows a slight edge towards the development of a household robot by 2030.

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

53.85%

Market YES

46%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $60K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.35% -1.5 pts

60/100

Market shows a close split on whether AI porn will surpass real porn by 2026.

Will Apple release an Apple Ring before 2030?

53.82%

Market YES

46%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.32% -1.5 pts

50/100

Market shows a slight lean towards Apple releasing an Apple Ring by 2030.

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

52.37%

Market YES

48%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.14% -1.5 pts

55/100

Market leans towards a YES for image generation in Claude by 2026.

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?

49.13%

Market YES

51%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $10K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.49% -1.5 pts

45/100

Market shows a nearly even split on AI beating Minecraft in under 10 minutes by 2029.

Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

54.3%

Market YES

46%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.8% -1.5 pts

60/100

There's a near-even chance of a major AI lab reporting a model compromise by 2027.

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?

1.8%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Polymarket

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.3% +1.5 pts

60/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 60/100. Market appears fairly priced.

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$385 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?

4.1%

Market YES

96%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.6% +1.5 pts

65/100

Market predicts Tesla will not close below $385 during the week of Mar 9-13.

Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?

52.1%

Market YES

48%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50.5% -1.5 pts

55/100

Nvidia's market cap is closely contested, with a slight edge in favor of a leading position by 2026.

Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029?

58.87%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.37% -1.5 pts

50/100

Market indicates a higher likelihood of AI datacenter sabotage by 2029.

Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026

59.2%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.7% -1.5 pts

55/100

There is a 59.2% chance major AI firms will halt MCP investments by 2026.

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?

0%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $61K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.45% +1.5 pts

65/100

Low probability for Microsoft to close between $400-$410 this week.

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $82K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.1% +1.5 pts

65/100

Market indicates a low probability of Microsoft closing between $380-$390 next week.

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

50.84%

Market YES

49%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.34% -1.5 pts

55/100

Market shows nearly equal chances for OpenAI's IPO in 2026.

AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?

50%

Market YES

50%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.75% -1.5 pts

55/100

Market shows a near-even split on AI outperforming humans by 2026.

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2060?

54.2%

Market YES

46%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $1K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 52.7% -1.5 pts

45/100

Silicon Valley has a slight edge as the top tech hub by 2060, but competition is close.

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

57.11%

Market YES

43%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.31% -1.5 pts

45/100

Market indicates a 59.81% chance of AI generating a full high-quality movie by 2028.

A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030

51.31%

Market YES

49%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 49.81% -1.5 pts

45/100

The market is evenly split on the likelihood of a humanoid robot killing a human by 2030.

Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $79K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

75/100

The market strongly favors NO for Alibaba having the best AI coding model.

Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $90K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market strongly favors NO for Moonshot having the best AI coding model by March 31.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets