AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?

2.6%

Market YES

97%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $182K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.25% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market strongly favors NO for Henry Cavill as the next James Bond.

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $37K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6% +1.5 pts

65/100

Market predicts NVIDIA will not close above $185 on March 16.

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 16?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $11K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 2.7% +1.5 pts

65/100

Market strongly favors NVIDIA closing below $190 on March 16.

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on March 16?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $19K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.6% +1.5 pts

65/100

NVIDIA is highly unlikely to close above $195 today.

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

59.15%

Market YES

41%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $7K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.65% -1.5 pts

50/100

There is a 59.15% chance that non-programmers will use AI for scripting by 2033.

By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?

56.47%

Market YES

44%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $11K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.97% -1.5 pts

45/100

Market sentiment is closely divided on Anthropic's future impact by 2028.

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

60.89%

Market YES

39%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $29K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.31% -1.5 pts

60/100

Market sees a slight edge for Tesla launching an autonomous ride-hailing service by 2026.

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

58.44%

Market YES

42%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $19K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 56.37% -1.5 pts

50/100

Market suggests a 57.87% chance of sentient AI by 2040.

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

56.45%

Market YES

44%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 55.02% -1.5 pts

50/100

Market leans towards AI beating a super grandmaster in chess by 2028.

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

0.3%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $66K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 2.05% +1.5 pts

80/100

Market indicates Microsoft is unlikely to be the largest company by market cap on April 30.

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

4.35%

Market YES

96%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $255K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5% +1.5 pts

80/100

Low probability for Apple to be the largest company by market cap on April 30.

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

0.25%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $143K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.75% +1.5 pts

80/100

Tesla is unlikely to be the largest company by market cap on April 30.

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

0.25%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $102K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.9% +1.5 pts

80/100

Market strongly favors NO for Amazon being largest by market cap on April 30.

xAI IPO before 2027?

0%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $123K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts

80/100

The market strongly favors that xAI will not IPO before 2027.

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of March?

35%

Market YES

65%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 50% -1.5 pts

55/100

Market shows a slight edge for Google closing above $300 by March end.

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

5.95%

Market YES

94%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $661K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.65% +1.5 pts

80/100

NVIDIA is unlikely to be the second-largest company by market cap on April 30.

Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

0.55%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $144K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.25% +1.5 pts

80/100

Microsoft is unlikely to be the second-largest company by market cap on April 30.

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?

3.8%

Market YES

96%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $36K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.1% +1.5 pts

65/100

Market expects SpaceX's cap to exceed $1.0T on IPO day.

Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

0.8%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $61K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.8% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market indicates low confidence in Moonshot having the top AI model by April 2026.

Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

0.4%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $29K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.7% +1.5 pts

75/100

Low probability for Amazon having the top AI model by April 2026.

Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

0.35%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $63K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.55% +1.5 pts

75/100

Mistral is unlikely to have the top AI model by April 2026.

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

33.5%

Market YES

67%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 57.5% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market leans towards a SpaceX IPO by June 2026 with a 56% probability.

Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?

0%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $691K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts

70/100

The market indicates a strong belief that Kanye will not release BULLY by March 20.

Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30?

0%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $128K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.5% +1.5 pts

70/100

The market strongly predicts Kanye will not release BULLY by January 30.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets