AI & Tech Prediction Markets

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?

0.3%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $266K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 2% +1.5 pts

65/100

Market expects SpaceX's cap to be below $700B on IPO day.

No one announced as next James Bond?

61.5%

Market YES

39%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $238K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51% -1.5 pts

60/100

Market shows a close probability on whether a new James Bond will be announced.

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

9.15%

Market YES

91%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $197K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 10.65% +1.5 pts

65/100

The market indicates a low likelihood of the chopsticks catching the booster.

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

4.6%

Market YES

95%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $159K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.1% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market sees low probability for OpenAI's IPO market cap to hit $1T-$1.25T.

Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

0.7%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $144K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 2.2% +1.5 pts

80/100

The market indicates a low probability of Amazon being the largest company by market cap on December

Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $269K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

80/100

Amazon is unlikely to be the second-largest company by market cap on March 31.

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

13.75%

Market YES

86%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $115K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.25% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market sees low probability for OpenAI's cap to hit $750B-$1T on IPO day.

Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?

2.55%

Market YES

97%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $113K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.05% +1.5 pts

70/100

Market indicates low probability for GPT-6 release by March 2026.

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

1.25%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $206K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.45% +1.5 pts

75/100

DeepSeek is unlikely to have the best AI model by June 2026.

Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

0.05%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $160K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.65% +1.5 pts

75/100

Mistral is unlikely to have the best AI coding model by March 31.

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

3.35%

Market YES

97%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $92K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 4.85% +1.5 pts

80/100

Low probability for Tesla to be the largest company by market cap by year-end.

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

15.5%

Market YES

85%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $91K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 15.5% +1.5 pts

80/100

Market indicates low probability of Apple being the largest company by market cap on December 31.

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

2.35%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $120K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 3.85% +1.5 pts

80/100

Low probability for Microsoft to be the largest company by market cap by year-end.

Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

0.25%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $142K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 1.75% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market strongly favors NO for Meituan having the best AI model by June 2026.

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

3.65%

Market YES

96%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $80K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 5.15% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market predicts OpenAI's IPO market cap will not reach $1.5T.

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

2.1%

Market YES

98%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $842K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 11.45% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market favors 'NO' for xAI having the best AI model by June 2026.

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

0.45%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $167K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 2.15% +1.5 pts

75/100

Market strongly favors Z.ai not having the best AI model by June 2026.

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

0.4%

Market YES

100%

Market NO

Polymarket

Vol $109K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 2.55% +1.5 pts

75/100

The market strongly favors that Alibaba will not have the best AI model by June 2026.

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

55%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $51K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.5% -1.5 pts

45/100

Market shows a close split on Yudkowsky's belief in AI doom by 2035.

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

59.51%

Market YES

40%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $17K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 58.28% -1.5 pts

45/100

Market suggests a 59.78% chance of AI escaping containment by 2029.

Will Amazon stock be higher on March 19, 2026 than on March 10, 2026?

50.2%

Market YES

50%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 48.7% -1.5 pts

60/100

Amazon stock has a nearly even chance of being higher by March 19, 2026.

Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents by end of March 2026?

35%

Market YES

65%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $22K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 54.18% -1.5 pts

60/100

Market shows a slight favor towards the publication of an AI app by March 2026.

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

55%

Market YES

45%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.5% -1.5 pts

50/100

Market shows a close probability for AI enabling communication with animals by 2034.

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

53%

Market YES

47%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $455K

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 53.41% -1.5 pts

50/100

Market shows a slight favor for AI producing a high-quality math paper by 2030.

🤖 AI & Tech Markets