Markets / Geopolitics

🌍 Geopolitics Markets

3,140 live markets · AI Pulse Scores on every one

⚡ Top Edge 🎯 High Confidence 💰 Most Volume 🆕 Newest
Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?
11.04%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $5K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 16.04% +5 pts
45/100
Low probability of U.S. military action against NATO members in 2026.
Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
28.74%
Market YES
71%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 33.74% +5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards no change in Iran's government and sanctions by 2030.
Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?
23.94%
Market YES
76%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 28.94% +5 pts
50/100
The market indicates a low probability of state-sanctioned death squads in the US by 2029.
Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
10.39%
Market YES
90%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.97% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability of a military coup in the U.S. before 2029.
Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?
30.42%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $54K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 35.18% +5 pts
45/100
Market suggests low likelihood of a liquidity event for former Consensys employees.
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
7.52%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $7K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.52% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability for Ukraine to regain full control of Crimea by 2030.
WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036
9.14%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $22K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.14% +5 pts
50/100
Market predicts low chances for Dr. Sackner Bernstein to win a major award by 2036.
Israel wins Eurovision 2026?
8.56%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 15% +5 pts
55/100
Israel has a low chance of winning Eurovision 2026 according to current market data.
If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?
25.01%
Market YES
75%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 30.01% +5 pts
55/100
Market leans towards Russia not using nuclear weapons if NATO intervenes.
[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?
36.72%
Market YES
63%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 41.72% +5 pts
45/100
Market leans towards no conflict with Iran before 2030.
Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO?
8.39%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $3K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 23.98% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability of getting a girlfriend before winning a USAMO award.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
0%
Market YES
100%
Market NO
Polymarket
Vol $10K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 36.5% +5 pts
60/100
Market favors fewer than 2.5 games, with a higher probability for NO.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War
11.39%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $4K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 31.39% +5 pts
55/100
Market sees low probability for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before the Iran War ends.
Will China invade Taiwan before 2027
10.76%
Market YES
89%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 24% +5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2027.
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?
19.5%
Market YES
81%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $33K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 29.75% +5 pts
60/100
The market indicates a low probability for the war in Ukraine ending before 2027.
Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
7.85%
Market YES
92%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 12.85% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability for Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons before 2031.
Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?
1.04%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $16K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 6.04% +5 pts
55/100
Market predicts low likelihood of Tesla certifying CEO Performance Award by June 2026.
Will a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?
0.56%
Market YES
99%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.25% +5 pts
55/100
Low probability of a canal being created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons.
Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?
17.48%
Market YES
83%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 22.48% +5 pts
50/100
Market leans towards NO for training a GPT-3 equivalent model under $10,000 in 1 hour by 2027.
Will Israel participate in IOI 2026 (on site)
5.4%
Market YES
95%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 11.85% +5 pts
55/100
Low probability of Israel participating in IOI 2026 on site.
Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?
11.66%
Market YES
88%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $1K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.23% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability of US nuclear weapons use by 2027, with market favoring a 'no' outcome.
Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?
3.93%
Market YES
96%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $11K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 8.93% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability for Ukraine to reclaim Melitopol by 2026.
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
2.82%
Market YES
97%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $6K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 7.82% +5 pts
60/100
Low probability for Ukraine to regain full control over Crimea by 2026.
Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
9.4%
Market YES
91%
Market NO
Manifold
Vol $2K
⚡ Pulse Score
NO AI: 14.4% +5 pts
50/100
Low probability for Iran using a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030.
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